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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.