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Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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